The $trategist - Lions, Tigers, Bears, Oh My!

Q1 2026

Lions, Tigers, Bears, Oh My!

Tom Wargin

Or maybe it should be: Uncertainty, Volatility, Downdrafts, Gas prices! What’s next? For as long as I have been helping to invest your money and mine, which is over 45 years, the phrase “The markets don’t like uncertainty” has been in financial literature. However, for all of those years I can’t remember when there hasn’t been uncertainty in some fashion. So, perhaps a different word would be more accurate. 

2026 started fine with gold and silver bouncing up nicely, as well as small cap and emerging market stocks. Gas prices and inflation looked to be heading lower. Then Operation “Epic Fury” hit. Whatever was going down jumped higher and areas that were gaining lost their momentum and tumbled also. Couple that with the modern day bond vigilantes (large hedge funds) sending rates higher by unwinding some of their leverage. As Vince Lombardi famously said: “What the h*ll is going on around here?” 

While I can’t predict the future, I can look at similar past episodes and observe that markets have generally increased following the end of the conflict— sometimes by substantial amounts. The only times the returns were negative were when a bear market was already in place. That was not the case earlier this year. [See the chart generated by ChatGPT.]

The real question to ask is are you an investor, a trader, or a gambler? If you are an investor, then your main purpose should be to own assets that increase in value equal to or in excess of inflation and maybe provide income as well. If you are a trader, you will look to find lower appreciated assets so you can take advantage of price discrepancies. If you are a gambler, you place your bets on what you hope are the winners.

We are investors. We look to own quality assets via a strategic asset allocation that is updated and rebalanced as necessary. We are not traders or gamblers! We try to be optimistic investors since it causes less problems and volatility than being pessimistic. Also we know that the stock market has an upward bias over longer periods of time. We will look to see if we can lessen the volatility through use of certain assets. But we are not betting on distinct outcomes. We may trade now and again but in very limited circumstances.

We have found our methods work over time. As another investment advisor named Keith Fitzgerald says: “When in doubt, zoom out”. Meaning stock returns smooth out over time. I’ve experienced it firsthand with my own portfolio and will attest to its validity. As a kind of PS, if you’re looking to read some very interesting and positive investment information on a regular basis check out The Rational Optimists Society emails and podcast at rationaloptimistsociety.substack.com.

Planning Notes

June Schroeder, CFP Board Emeritus®

Postmark policy change could cost you!

You used to expect a postmark the day you mailed a first class envelope. Now adjustments have been made to USPS transportation operations that result in mail often not arriving at automated processing facilities for postmarking for several days after collected by a carrier or put in a mailbox. This could cause a late fee or other problems for you if the postmark is after the mail by date for bills, tax returns, etc. 

According to USPS.com: “If you want to ensure that your mail receives a postmark and that the date on the postmark aligns with the date of mailing, you can go to any USPS retail counter and request a postal employee to manually postmark, or “hand-cancel” up to 50 items for free.” Or, to save yourself a trip, mail early!

Real id reminder

It’s travel time and since February 1, 2026, you must have your passport or Real ID if you are going to fly! If you show up at an airline without, you will pay $45 to TSA.gov and receive an emailed receipt. You can then show that receipt at the security gate to be checked against the TSA system and allowed to pass through.

Client Alerts

Shannon Nook, FPQP ™

Investment Policy Statement Review

We continue to manage your account allocation in accordance with your most recent designated investment objectives, Investment Policy Statement (IPS). NOTE: It is your responsibility to advise us if there has been a change in your financial situation, income needs, investment objectives, or if you would like to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions on the management of your accounts. Feel free to contact us to discuss this further.

It’s Regulation Time Again

If you’d like a free copy of any of the following LFG documents, please contact info@lfgwi.com or call our office directly 262-785-1377: 

• ADV: SEC Registration Summary
• Business Continuity Plan: Emergency Back Up Plan
• CRS: Common Reporting Standard, an explanation of who we are
• Privacy Notice: How we handle your private information

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